Mar 31, 2020
The numbers from China, the only country that has begun to emerge from their CoVid19 epidemic, show that a plague resurgence seems unlikely. The risk depends on population size and density for any given area as well as the rigor of personal protection measures.
Mathematicians analyzed numbers of new cases in 13 cities or provinces and calculated probabilities of new cases going forward. In half the jurisdictions, there was a ZERO calculated probability more cases. In the most populous areas, the risk was between 3 and 7%, but strict personal protection reduced the risk by 67%.
We can control this virus with hand washing, physical distancing, testing, and quarantine of active cases.
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